Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 20.698202 22.582828 24.676768 27.199593 30.189768 33.664457 38.074892
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 17.976380 20.448235 23.406463 27.293219 32.406684 39.133666 49.102964
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.187107 18.982322 22.519692 27.500245 34.666363 45.257420 63.746951
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 14.861124 17.837648 21.772507 27.635936 36.756887 51.807044 83.126182
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.710391 16.742640 20.885300 27.338760 38.044755 57.527993 105.947557
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.879527 15.966669 20.309157 27.354438 39.784664 64.800211 141.471388
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 12.122286 15.205935 19.644838 27.088601 40.925487 71.433465 188.218289
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 11.475217 14.537774 19.033812 26.793573 41.913184 78.306647 257.879639
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.930720 13.970262 18.511636 26.558283 42.948498 86.031455 376.697920
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.469297 13.488114 18.071905 26.395791 44.092702 95.017218 617.811441
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.973448 12.919670 17.443084 25.799300 44.117961 100.571524 995.906479
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.843297 12.895032 17.689292 26.872437 48.400099 126.466520 23659.711078
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.479472 12.491255 17.280199 26.633035 49.392159 140.556440 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.196509 12.197586 17.034496 26.692076 51.242519 162.819202 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.956858 11.957854 16.861369 26.877274 53.549493 194.128971 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.726924 11.720028 16.671929 27.001417 55.754680 233.200066 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.455460 11.400671 16.314472 26.712796 56.572431 264.896997 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.245836 11.171743 16.103599 26.726612 58.455112 321.514451 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.014912 10.896816 15.790809 26.470389 59.326987 374.567430 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.795737 10.631907 15.480495 26.186334 60.037006 437.442738 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.597675 10.394023 15.206565 25.959827 60.930999 524.898775 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.420217 10.183521 14.971874 25.803399 62.091702 656.830595 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.203083 9.898274 14.581630 25.229106 61.344279 714.486182 NaN